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What will you be doing in 2050?

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Long-term vision. We have it. And now the European Commission does too. This week they have launched two significant pieces of work: the Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area and Flightpath 2050, Europe’s Vision for Aviation. Both these plans are complementary and both are to be applauded for their scope and vision.

Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area

This was released on Monday and presents a comprehensive strategy for all European transport that aims to increase the ability for all people in Europe to move around, while reducing emissions. Many of the headlines (particularly in the more anti-European Union press in the UK) have feigned outrage and said that the strategy will lead to the EU banning cars in cities. I actually think the strategy presents a vision which foresees that we won’t need diesel or petrol cars in cities. In 40 year’s time, who knows what we will be driving on? The smart money would be on something other than fossil fuel. So what is in this plan for aviation? Some key points:

  • By 2050, the majority of medium-distance passenger transport, about 300km and beyond, should go by rail. We would agree with this to a certain extent, but caution that high-speed rail only works well between large cities that have big volumes of traffic, or those that don’t have natural barriers such as mountain ranges or the sea. The infrastructure for high-speed rail is costly and can be very disruptive. But in the right circumstances it is a very efficient form of transport.
  • By 2050, connect all core network airports to the rail network, preferably high-speed. We would agree that intermodal transport is a smart choice.
  • Low-carbon fuels in aviation to reach 40% by 2050. We would welcome this – in fact, we would welcome much more than 40% by 2050.
  • A complete modernisation of Europe’s air traffic control system by 2020, delivering the Single European Sky: shorter and safer air journeys and more capacity. A great goal – the Single European Sky will significantly reduce emissions.

Coupled with the aviation industry’s global emissions reduction targets, this plan represents a decent vision for how a total transport solution for Europe can be built in the next 40 years. Having a European Commission-backed target for aviation biofuels is significant. This now has to be backed up with support from the Commission into getting biofuels into our planes. The six steps we suggested in Powering the Future of Flight would be a good start!

Flightpath 2050: Europe’s Vision for Aviation

This plan (I am guessing it is a subset of the overall plan mentioned above?) was launched today at the European AeroDays in Madrid and is the result of some work by the High Level Group on Aviation Research. It really does represent a vision, taking the form of a narrative from 2050, looking at some key priority areas (including environment of course). It is worth a read, but a number that stood out for me is the fact that in civil aerospace in Europe alone, almost 7 billion euros a year are spent on research and development – much of it of course to increase efficiency and reduce emissions.

Domingo Urena-Raso, President of ASD, hailed the plan as a truly remarkable document, which sets very ambitious goals for Europe’s aviation sector: “Needless to say, we as an industry are keen to turn Vision 2050 into a reality. But how do we go about it? For me, the answer is very simple: what’s needed is substantial and sustained investment in technology. And with that in mind, the next EU programme for research – the so-called Common Strategic Framework – will be a vital element in this effort.”

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